End of Global Warming Debate

By the most qualified real climatologists

It really is as easy as 1-2-3.


1. It is fundamentally mathematically impossible for climate models to predict climate.

Chaos Theory's Butterfly Effect is usually described as the flapping of a butterfly's wings in Japan resulting in a hurricane in the Atlantic. This is not artistic hyperbole, this is mathematical reality.

Climate is a quintessential example of this phenomenon.

Unless climate models do the absolutely impossible and account for even a butterfly's wings flapping, particularly when they are initialized, and then calculate with infinite precision, they can not predict climate.

Climate models are just more complex/chaotic weather models, which have a theoretical maximum predictive ability of just 10 days into the future. Predicting climate decades or even just years into the future is a lie, albeit a useful one for publication and funding.

Qualified climate modelers know all this but almost all won't publically admit it out of fear for their careers.




2. Climate proxies are far too inaccurate, unreliable, and sparse to prove anything about past global climate, e.g. that it was colder.

Climate proxies are things like tree rings and ice cores. Given old methods and instruments, even historical climate measurements have to be considered climate proxies.

They are called climate "proxies" because they are substitutes for real climate measurements. Obviously, there are no instruments in these climate proxies so how is it done? The climate measurements have to be inferred from loosely-related characteristics of the proxy, e.g. temperature from tree ring widths. This usually involves primitive modeling or misuse of statistics. It is thus inaccurate and unreliable well beyond what is required for the conclusions drawn.

Climate proxies are very sparse. A single measurement often has to represent thousands of square miles or more, particularly in remote ocean regions, and is usually not representative of that area (e.g. sampled trees are not chosen randomly) or doesn't even have a knowable bias. A single temperature for the Earth averaged from these measurements is meaningless and absurd.

The reason for using climate proxies is that there is nothing else, which is not a good reason ... unless you have to get published or funded.


3. Scientific consensus is not proof of global warming, just publication and funding bias.

Scientific consensus = all published research shows global warming.

Climate model/proxy research that does not show global warming will not get published or funded because of:
Dr. Duane Thresher

Postdoc, tree ring climate proxy modeling, University of Alaska (ARSC and SNRAS).
Postdoc, ocean climate proxy modeling, Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany.
PhD, Earth & Environmental Sciences (climate modeling/proxies), Columbia University and NASA GISS (working for Dr. James Hansen, the father of global warming, and Dr. Gavin Schmidt).
MS, Atmospheric Science (climate modeling/tree rings/chaos), University of Arizona and NCAR.
BS, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, MIT and NASA.

Selected publications:

Thresher, D., 2010: "Report: International Winter School on Wood Anatomy of Tree Rings 2010", Dendrochronologia, 28, 259–260. http://www.wsl.ch/info/mitarbeitende/gaertner/WoodanatomyCourse/Report_2010.pdf

Thresher, D., 2007c: "Improving Alkenone Temperature Paleoclimate Reconstruction, with Example from the Last Glacial Maximum Tropics", Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta. Questions the validity of the established method for sea surface temperature reconstruction. Rejected after standard sloppy peer review: I requested three specific less-biased reviewers, got three very-biased reviewers instead (careers dependent on established method), only two responded, one against, one neutral, and the editor cast the deciding vote against, not even being qualified to review the paper. Available here.

Note below: Hansen is Dr. James Hansen, the former head of NASA GISS and the father of global warming. Schmidt is Dr. Gavin Schmidt, the current head of NASA GISS anointed by Hansen.

Hansen, J., ..., D. Thresher, ..., 2007b: "Climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS modelE", Climate Dynamics, 29, 661–696. https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha09210n.html

Hansen, J., ..., D. Thresher, ..., 2007a: "Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study", Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 7, 2287–2312. https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha00210r.html

Schmidt, G. A., ..., J. E. Hansen, ..., D. Thresher, ..., 2006: "Present-Day Atmospheric Simulations Using GISS ModelE: Comparison to In Situ, Satellite, and Reanalysis Data", Journal of Climate, 19, 153–192. https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/sc05200y.html

Hansen, J., ..., D. Thresher, ..., 2005: "Efficacy of climate forcings", Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, 1–45. https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha01110v.html

Thresher, D. E., 2004: "Multi-Century Simulations of LGM and Present Day Climate Using an Accelerated Coupled GCM Carrying Water Isotope Tracers, With Comparisons to Ocean Sediment/Ice Cores and Observations", PhD thesis, Columbia University. https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/th08000d.html

Thresher, D., G. Schmidt, D. Rind, and G. Hoffmann, 2004: "Multi-Century Simulations of LGM and Present Day Climate Using a Coupled GCM Carrying Water Isotope Tracers, With Comparisons to Ocean Sediment/Ice Cores and Observations", EOS, TRANSACTIONS, AGU, 85(17), Joint Assembly Supplement, Abstract A52B–05 (American Geophysical Union, May, Montreal).

NRC, 2002: "Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises" Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Participant in National Research Council’s Abrupt Climate Change Workshop, October 2000, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, which contributed to this book. https://www.nap.edu/read/10136/chapter/13#215 and search for "Thresher".

Thresher, D. and NCAR, 1997: shr_orb_decl and shr_orb_params, GCM source code (Fortran 90) subroutines for calculation of earth’s era-appropriate orbital parameters (i.e., Milankovitch parameterization). Part of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s GCMs from CCM3 to the current CCSM. This code was added by Thresher after he found a related major bug in CCM2, which called into question the many scientific results from using CCM2 but was never widely publicized. http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/models/atm-cam/docs/cam3.0/cam30eul-browser/html_code/share/shr_orb_mod.F90.html and search for "Thresher".
Dr. Claudia Kubatzki

Certificate, pollen climate proxy analysis, Georg August University Goettingen, Germany.
Scientist, climate modeling/proxies, Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany.
Scientist, climate modeling/proxies, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany.
PhD, Natural Sciences (climate modeling/proxies), Free University of Berlin and PIK, Germany.
MS, Meteorology (climate modeling/proxies), University of Hamburg and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany.

Selected publications:

Herzschuh, U., H. Birks, L. Xingqi, C. Kubatzki, G. Lohmann, 2010: "Retraction: What caused the mid-Holocene forest decline on the eastern Tibet-Qinghai Plateau?", Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20(2), 366. After at least 4 rejections and deciding the paper had no scientific value worth publishing, and quitting working for Gerrit Lohmann due to his abusive behavior, I was horrified to discover 3 years after I quit climate science that the paper had been published with my name on it. As determined by the publisher lawyer, during a standard sloppy peer review Lohmann fabricated my required submission signature, as well as my responses to the peer reviewers. After harassment by Lohmann, aided by the journal, of me, my husband, my current and former bosses, and my husband's current boss, I was finally able to get the paper retracted. Fraudulently, Lohmann and Birks continued to list this paper in their publications without the required "Retraction" in the title. See http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00501.x/full then http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00648.x/full. For the full story see Corrupt German Climate Science.

Braun, H., ..., S. Rahmstorf, ..., C. Kubatzki, ..., 2005: "Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model", Nature, 438, 208-211. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7065/abs/nature04121.html

Ganopolski, A., C. Kubatzki, M. Claussen, ..., 1998: "The influence of vegetation-atmosphere-ocean interaction on climate during the mid-Holocene", Science, 280, 1916-1919. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/280/5371/1916
Other Real Climatologists

If you are not a coward, took courses and have graduate degrees in climate, support the above statement, and would like to be added to this list, figure out how to email Dr. Duane Thresher and provide him your name and verifiable credentials as above.

It's safer to come out now (a news article quoting Dr. Duane Thresher):

Climate Change Skeptics Welcome Open Debate Under Trump Presidency

Other news articles quoting Dr. Duane Thresher:

Climate Alarmists Warn Fewer Picnic-Perfect Days Thanks to 'Global Warming'

Whistle-Blower: 'Global Warming' Data Manipulated Before Paris Conference

Scientists Warn of Climate Apocalypse: CO2 Emissions Will Send Earth Back to 'Triassic Period'

Climate Scientists Spread Panic: 'Ten Years' to Save the Earth